November Noise, March Truth: What UNC–Michigan State Really Tells Us
Basketball season is always an interesting journey. Instant hot takes and Twitter rants start flying in November, long before a team actually knows what it is. Coaches don’t care about that noise. They want their teams playing their best basketball in February, building toward tournament season.
Roy Williams famously never looked at the score in the first half. He cared about how his team was playing, because the performance eventually reveals the score. The months before January need to be viewed the same way—teams learning their identity, players figuring out roles, and in some cases, just trying to remember all the new faces on the roster.
The problem? While you’re trying to build a team, the “bracketologists” are lurking like mall cops with a radar gun, ready to ding your résumé the moment something looks off.
So far, the Tar Heels have quieted the noise. Early success, including a win over Kansas, has kept the quad police in hibernation. And the matchup between North Carolina and Michigan State is exactly the kind of pre-Christmas game college basketball needs. It’s dessert after a full afternoon of turkey and side dishes you won’t see again until next year.
Unlike Thanksgiving dinner, Hubert Davis can experiment with new recipes today—tinkering with lineups and roles to shape what this team can become by March. And just like another UNC–Michigan State game 16 years ago, anything that happens today is measured by one question: Does it help you finish on a ladder in April? If you don’t remember that 2008 game, go ahead and Google it. You’ll understand.
Before every game was televised, fans had to learn what happened by opening the newspaper and reading the box score. If you were lucky, a short article added some context. For today’s game against Michigan State, let’s go old-school and break down the keys: the story the fine print would’ve told you in 1988.
The Games Within the Game
Everyone knows North Carolina needs more consistent play from its bench. The Heels have been starting games well even without Trimble, but the drop-off is obvious once the first round of substitutions hits. The reserves bring effort—what they’re missing is execution and focus.
This game could swing on which coach squeezes more productive minutes from the 8–15 minute guys. It would benefit UNC to work inside with Wilson and Veesaar and use their passing to open driving lanes. If the two bigs combine for 15–20 free throws, Michigan State may be forced to rely on its bench more than Tom Izzo wants.
Who Is Taking the Three-Point Shots?
At first glance, Michigan State looks like an average three-point shooting team at 29%. But like UNC it depends entirely on who is shooting. Fears and Kohler shoot over 40%. Trey Fort has taken nearly the same number but hits only 23.8%.
For Carolina, they need Derek Dixon to be steady. Everyone understands he’s still learning and will look very different in February, but his shooting off the bench could be essential—especially given the attention Caleb Wilson will draw from Izzo’s defense.
Limit open looks for Fears and Kohler, and UNC can rebound and get out in transition, where they’re at their best.
Be in a Hurry, But Don’t Rush
North Carolina is still adjusting in transition without Seth Trimble. With him, they might be the best transition team in the country. Without him, they can still be very good—especially if Veesaar runs the floor the way he did against St. Bonaventure.
They don’t need a specific number of fast-break points. What they need is to rebound, push, and create early-clock opportunities. Carolina passes too well not to punish defenses in the secondary break.
Michigan State will try to beat up Wilson early with physicality and double-teams. Yes, sometimes a player just has to defeat a double team on his own. But if Wilson makes the early passes, finds teammates, and forces Izzo to loosen the coverage, the offense becomes smoother—as we saw in the second half of the last two games.
Final Bites
So after the leftovers settle and the Heels tip off with Michigan State, here’s the last question of the day: How are you watching? Settled in with a slice of pumpkin pie, or headed back for another round of gravy? Is there a better way to end Thanksgiving day than watching the Tar Heels on the hardwood? Nope I didn’t think so either.
